Hari Om, I am migrating my blog from www.samirsinh-dattopadhye.blogspot.com to www.aniruddhafriend-samirsinh.com. The old blog will be available for a week for old references and thereafter it will be redirected to new blog

Monday, 5 November 2012

The World Today..

ll Hari Om ll

Early in the year 2006, Dr. Aniruddha Dhairyadhar Joshi (Aniruddhasinh) wrote a series of editorials titled 'The Third World War' in the daily 'Pratyaksha'. This series was then compiled and published in the form of a work by the same name.

Aniruddhasinh primarily wishes to acquaint His friends with at least 2% of what the third world war means. 'Only because...', the preface to the work reveals the intent and purpose behind this work, a study of the current political scenario as well as of the possibilities that will unravel in the times to come... 

...and today we see the picture on the canvas of the world coinciding with this study. 

There is discontent that becomes rage, there is unrest that becomes uprising and there is aggression that becomes war but is not necessarily recognized as war. Vested political interests and the rapidly changing considerations or the convenience of the moment shall we say, makes the scenario all the more uncertain and so even worse. The tremors of bombings are felt the world over but are considered isolated or stray acts of whim when in actual fact they are part-pieces of a large jigsaw, they are not just drumbeats of war, they are much more and as Dr. Aniruddha Dhairyadhar Joshi (Aniruddhasinh) points out in His work 'The Third World War', "Concealed behind her veil of calm, the witch that is the third world war knocks at the door".
 
Today, there is neither a demarcated battlefield nor does the clash remain restricted to conflicting nations only. The other nations of the world are bound to and they do take a stand - one that serves a selfish motive, which again changes every coming day. The conflict therefore draws several nations into war – each enters with its own motive and with an axe to grind leading to a world war.
 
So the point is, 'she' – the witch that is the third world war is already here and so may we not mistake her veil of calm for 'peace' or even be laid back because the unrest is happening in a far off nation.
 
Just like ripples in the ocean spread over the entire expanse of its waters, the war will spread to every nook of the earth. A spark will cause flames and the flames will spread far, to the farthest point.
 
Let us try to understand the current political scenario of the world basing our study on the work "The Third World War".
 

We begin our study with Syria, the country that is causing concern the world over.   

Syria Today.. 
Syria is a blatant illustration of the tumult and the ripples that we have been talking about. The protests within the nation that turned into conflict have spiraled into the 'civil war'. The nations of the world are taking a stand, within and outside their countries and the ripples are roping in more and more nations compelling us to see a new pattern emerging before us, with every turn of the kaleidoscope.

About Syria: 

Syria
Geographical Location: A country in the Middle-East, Syria borders Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea to the west, Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south and Israel to the south-west.

Background: Syria, The Kingdom of Silence:
The modern Syrian state gained independence in April 1946 and saw a series of coups and coup attempts for quite some time after. Syria has been under Emergency Law from 1963 until April 2011 effectively suspending most constitutional protection for citizens and implying immense powers of arrest and detention to security forces. Since 1980, any opposition to the Ba'athist regime has been prohibited. All other parties but the ruling one remain banned making Syria a one-party state without free elections. Rights of expression, association and assembly are strictly controlled. There have been allegations of violations of Human Rights and of prisoners being tortured. Popular sites like Facebook, Wikipedia, Amazon and YouTube were blocked until 1st January 2011 when all citizens were permitted to sign up for high-speed internet and the sites were allowed. So until 2011 Syria remained what 'Al Jazeera' (an independent broadcaster owned by the state of Qatar) termed as the 'kingdom of silence' mainly due to stringent security measures and prospects of insurgency. 

Hafez al-Assad held the office of President since 1971 until 2000 when following his death, Bashar al-Assad, his son and the present day President succeeded him.

The Scene Today:
1. The Syrian civil war is an ongoing armed conflict in Syria between forces loyal to the ruling Ba'ath party government and those wanting to oust it. The Syrian government consists of Shia Alawites whereas the opposition is dominated by Sunnis. The protestors demand the resignation of President Assad and the 5 decade old Ba'ath party rule. The conflict has no clear fronts with armed conflicts scattered over and across the country. The protests that began moderately escalated to become an armed uprising. The Syrian army executed severe crackdowns seeking to quell the uprising.
 
2. In July 2011 army defectors near the Turkish-Syrian border declared the formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Several opposition groups have now come together under the body called the Syrian National Council (SNC) that has international support and was until recently considered a partner for dialogue by the US.
 
3. To escape violence hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees have fled to neighbouring countries. According to various sources more than 30,000 have lost their lives in this civil war, by October 2012, upto 28,000 were reported missing and about 1.2 million have been displaced within the country. 


4. Syria is thought to have the third largest stockpile of weapons for chemical warfare in the world, and opposition forces are concerned they may be used as a last resort to remain in power by the regime. 
 
5. USA provides weapon aid to Syrian rebels not directly but via Saudi Arabia and Qatar but can hardly control where exactly they land. And indeed they mostly land up with extremist groups who should not lay their hands on them. The SNC made special efforts to bring opposition groups together so that it was easier for foreign countries to provide weapon aid.
 
6. There is a rift among the rebels and the ones associated with the Al Qaeda prove one up on the others.
 
7. Meanwhile the Shia rebels in Iraq come together to back the Assad government. These groups include the Hezbollah that is up in arms against the American army in Iraq. So the conflict now dons a Shia vs Sunni colour although both parties deny it.
 
8. The UN peace envoy Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi proposed a 4 day ceasefire over the festival of Eid. The declaration proved in vain as it was breached within hours after it came into force. The last day saw the Syrian army strike air attacks on Damascus.

The unrest, the violence and the lash out it is observed, does not remain limited to Syrian territory. The brunt of the discontent and in fact even active participation in skirmish and backlash spills over in the neighbouring countries.

The bloodshed continues unabated despite the call for ceasefire and despite the withdrawal of support to the opposition from the US. Where do Syria's other neighbours and the world stand today? What do the spillovers of violence and explosions point to? 


ll Hari Om ll

13 comments:

Sunny Sand said...

Shree Ram..... Being in Middle East I used to feel scared reading Bapu's book on 3rd world war but now am confident that where ever we are Bapu is there with us. Am happy that though the outlook is scary and going in the lines which He has written.... This will ultimate lead to Ram Rajya......

Regards,

Sandeepsinh

Muscat

Adv Sarang Vaidya said...

Solid study Samirdada......

Swapnil said...

Hari om Dada,
Shree Ram for the beginning of this topic on your blog. As you said it is very important for all of us to understand the current situation as we may also have to face consequences of it. India is country which have people of different religions which are spread across the globe. So if we may not have to face war directly, anyway we can get affected due to religious sentiments of perticular community during war. Geologically and considering our economical importance India is very important country. Knowing that we have two neighbouring countries who have always tried to get edge over us and for that they can go to any extent, we should stay always careful against them as they may try to take advantage of disastrous situation in future.

Swapnil said...

Talking about syria, they are situated in middle-east where unrest against govt is in most of the countries and terrorist groups are trying to take advantage of it. This will be very serious as you said that syria have chemical weapons and if such chemical, biological, nuclear weapons will go in hands of this terrorist it will a very bad impact on entire world.

Shree ram for starting posts on this subject, we will be waiting for next post for your guidence on this subject. Hari Om.

Priyamwadaveera said...

Hari OM.

This article updates us on the Syria today . We all are gearing up to face the unfortunate effects of the upcoming war.

Regards,
Priyamwada,

Suneeta Karande said...

Hari Om , DADA. Thanks a lot for stating your valuable opinion regarding Syrian War. From many days the thoughts were lingering in mind that what will be your views and finally today your article appeared on your blog. Hats off to you DADA for providing variety of dishes for meal as well as dinner.
The Syrian civil war, is also referred to as the Syrian uprising, It is an ongoing armed conflict in Syria between forces loyal to the Ba'ath Party government and those seeking to oust it. The conflict began on 15 March 2011 with nationwide demonstrations as part of the wider protest movement known as the Arab Spring. It seems that Syria is very complicated .There are Sunni, Shia, Druze, Kurds and Christians. If the religious tension becomes the "major hue" of the fighting, the bloodshed could be worse than in Iraq, says Mark Schnellbaecher, based in Beirut. Schnellbaecher, who oversees CRS operations in the region, and who visited Oregon last month. There are different religions in India and we may face similar situations due to religious tensions.
The conflict, with a regime willing to torture its citizens, is increasingly vicious. Regular people suffer and refugees are still fleeing Syria in large numbers. There are more than 300,000 refugees.
In view of above, Syria's civil war has impact beyond borders. In recent weeks, the fighting has heightened Sunni-Shia tensions in neighboring Lebanon, home to Iran-backed Hezbollah, and prompted cross-border shelling between Syria and Turkey. The unrest has also proved a magnet for global jihadists, including al-Qaeda-linked groups, fighting for the establishment of an Islamist state.
The UN estimates more than 20,000 deaths—mostly civilians—in the uprising, more than 340,000 refugees, and some 2.5 million Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance.
Here Dr. Aniruddhasinh’s words of Ramrajya 2025 discourse are reminders that the entire BHARATVARSHA will be playing an important and more crucial role in field of humanitarian assistance.
Dada, your article focuses on the Theme of “Third World War” from each and every aspect. We will be eagerly waiting for next post from you to seek guidance on this subject.
Shreeram!!!

Anonymous said...

Hari OM

That's a very good alarming article, India needs to learn from Syria and act before extreme situation arise. Even in India there is lot of unrest on various issues and exploitation of common public.

Hari OM

Vikrant

Bhushan Naik said...

Hari Om Dada!!!

It is clear from post that world is passing through the situation which Bapu wrote in his book on Third world war.
This is indeed a useful information which help us in keeping update about the world situation today.

Waiting for next post.

Nesarikar said...

Hari Om dada,

THe situation gets further complicated because of Golan heights which is flash point between Syria and Israel. There are reports that Syrian Army is moving towards Golan heights probably to divert attention.

Sinkaru Island is other flash point between China and Japan. I believe we no longer can remain aloof but need to side with USA, Japan and Australia.

sanjaysinh nesarikar

Nikhil Bhalwankar said...

Hari Om Dada,

Excellent write up. This depicts the true picture of what is going on in the world. The witch is coming closer and closer......

Rashmi said...

Hariom Dada! Thanks for sharing such valuable information on the blog. There are many who might not be able to read the daily news paper ‘ Pratyaksha’, for many reasons. Especially the people staying abroad.

As told to us by P.P. Bapu,
“The common man and sometimes even the political leadership is of the
opinion that a discussion on war or analysis of war cannot be done openly because
war is a sudden and a surprise manifestation of secret schemes and conspiracies.
Besides more than 90% of the people, not only of India but of every country in the
world, cannot base their contemplation over war, the political reasons behind the war as
also the realization of these on just a bare minimum of information. However it is
these very people, who have not only to suffer but to with stand hundred percent of
the consequences of the war.”
Such information will really help us in times to come. Thanks Dada!
II Hariom II

DIPAK KULKARNI, NANDURBAR said...

Not only the book but your articles, columns in Pratyakha also help and guide to understand the current world affairs. HARIOM

Aniket Gupte said...

Hari om dada,
While reading your post on the current situation in Syria, I remebered a marathi saying, "Murti Lahaan pan Kirti Mahaan". Syria if compared in size to the economic and political giants of the world, is very small in size. However the happenings in the country have an impact manifold times. Also the involvement of other countries like the US indicates that this is just the tip of the Iceberg, a lot still remains hidden deep down the water.